Trial By Fire

The Video iPod Doth Rock

I might be eating my words soon.  In a post last October I dared to make a prediction that "video iPod will be relegated to niche, specialty content, and the intense shift seen in music will never occur".  I even really emphasized the "never".  I should never make predictions, that's what I should never do!

It's not that the iPod video is setting the world on fire.  In fact, my prediction that it will never take off in the way music has may hold up, who knows.  However, Apple has created a "total mobile experience" that is full of so much raw potential that I can hardly believe every content provider isn't clamoring to produce mobile content for the iPod!  There is so much money sitting on the table and nobody is grabbing at it!  Wake up!

If you want to find out what the future will be like, take your iPod video and subscribe to "ABC News Now".  Every day, a 15 minute excellent video newscast that will make it clear that television news (on your television that is) is headed for the dumpster.  I am so impressed that ABC has done a dedicated news podcast.  Now the problem is, ABC isn't my favorite news program. I want every single news program to do the same thing.  I want choice.  Lots of choice.

And damnit, I'd be happy to pay!  I bet lots of people would.  That's the potential.

This difference between "potential" and "reality" is obvious if you take a look at a Google search for "iPod video".  Hardly anything of merit.  Mostly, it's outdated product reviews and Apple propaganda.  Now, try Googling for "iPod video torrents".  Ah ha!  A treasure trove of people talking about the real content on Bittorrent, Guba and other places.  These are the people who are experiencing the dream rather than just dreaming.

I confess, one of them is me.  I crossed the line.  And now that I have, here are some things you should try, if you dare:

First, go to www.podtropolis.com.  Hope you don't hear Police Sirens.  Hope it's still there when you read this.  Now, browse the shows.  Figure out the BitTorrent thing.  It's worth it.

Try Robot Chicken.  10 minute episodes you can watch in bed before you go to sleep.  The Simpsons do pretty well on the small screen.  Just browse, download, drag to your iTunes video icon, and sync your iPod.  Magical.  No complex software, no conversions.  The potential for short video is astounding, but nobody is doing it right in the commercial world.

Here's what commercial content owners need to do:

1. Create pay subscription feeds in iTunes using existing brands like ComedyCentral.  Make sure people get 3-5 podcasts each week in several feeds tailored to what people want.  Charge $4.95 per month.
2. Don't charge per-episode!  If you do, you're missing out on loyalty opportunities.  I would NEVER buy a single ABC News Now.  But, I'd subscribe to a whole month of them, no problem.  Same goes for Robot Chicken.  I would have never bought a single episode.   But, if it's part of the feed, I'd pay a monthly subscription.
3. Forget about on-demand streaming video.  I've been using on-demand video for 10 years.  Watching videos in "actively find, click, watch, navigate" mode is a waste of brain power and most people won't do it.  Focus on the iPod and the seamless subscription and delivery model.

Hurry up.  My credit card is glowing, and there's nobody to pay!   I certainly don't want to pay Guba.  They're just delivering (mostly illegal) content.  I'm the type of person that will gladly buy 3 boxed DVD sets per month.  I'll gladly pay for it online too.  Just make it possible!  Please.

Ballmer: Family Values vs. Employee iPods

I know Ballmer's going to take a lot of flak for this comment from today's CNN article:

Do you have an iPod?
No, I do not. Nor do my children. My children--in many dimensions they're as poorly behaved as many other children, but at least on this dimension I've got my kids brainwashed: You don't use Google, and you don't use an iPod.

Though perhaps an offhand comment, I assume it's not a joke. 

I think Steve needs to step back and listen to some of his employees.  Maybe they really do know quite a bit that Steve doesn't.  Let's see...

Last February's Wired article "Hide your iPod, Here Comes Bill" reveals that Steve Ballmer is in the minority:

"About 80 percent of Microsoft employees who have a portable music player have an iPod," said one source, a high-level manager who asked to remain anonymous. "It's pretty staggering."
...
So concerned is management, owning an iPod at Microsoft is beginning to become impolitic, the manager said. Employees are hiding their iPods by swapping the telltale white headphones for a less conspicuous pair.

A year later, it seems management is not only concerned, but positively paranoid.  Many Microsoft employees see things differently than Steve and Bill.  Tom Harpel, a Microsoft Employee who is not hiding his headphones, understands why understanding competing products can be empowering:

Yes, I use a Mac. I love using a Mac. Yes, I carry an iPod. I don't love it, but it works pretty well. I have a TiVo today, but I'm sure I'll be adding a Media Center to my living room sometime in the next year.

I like toys. I like gadgets. Every product out there tries to use technology to solve a problem. It's fun and enlightening to try stuff out, to try to understand how each company approaches problem solving differently. Using competitor's products is one way to get at that understanding.

Today in Paul Kedrosky's Blog, Robert Scoble also had no hesitation in his open-mindedness about the competition:

I work for Microsoft. My son is a famous Apple freak. Here's a picture of him: http://www.horsepigcow.com/2006/03/brunching.html

Have I gotten fired? Derided? No.

When we have a product that my son finds to be better than his iPod, he'll let you know.

Omar Shahine, another Microsoft employee, goes one step further when he says that there simply isn't a better audio device than Apple's iPod:

I’m beginning to change my mind about things. Even though we have a great eco system for music stores etc, the reality is that our OEM partners are never ever going to create a product like the iPod. They are simply no match for the iPod Dock Connector, which as generated an ecosystem of hardware that’s probably more lucrative than the online music business.

Game over.

How frustrated and demotivated must employees like Omar feel when they hear this in an interview with Bill Gates:

On the subject of the iPod's success, Mr. Gates acknowledged Apple has done a "great job" in marketing and selling the iPod, but refused to acknowledged [sic] that Apple had beaten out Microsoft for dominance in music players. Mr. Gates vowed that customer choice will win out in the end.

Kristian Rickard, program manager for Entertainment & Devices, questions everything, but admits that innovation at Microsoft at least deserves to be put in quotation marks for now:

A couple weeks ago, Bill Gates and Steve Ballmer discussed "innovation" with a group of us employees in a cafe on a Redmond campus. After the discussion, it made me think about how some people wonder if Microsoft is still a truly innovative company. Their main point is that there are a fair number of people walking around with the infamous white ear buds, a tell-tale sign that those people are listening to (or pretending to, anyway) their music on their iPods. So they argue that Apple is the leader in software innovation ... that they are the innovative leader, now.

Yes, Apple's iPod was a great idea. Their new video iPod made that great idea better. But other than that iPod, what else has Apple done that is truly innovative in the past few years?

Kintan Brahmbhatt, a designer at Microsoft, has one of the most genuine and open-minded views of the iPod and its influence in his ipod and the design of things to come post:

I religiously admire Apple for its proven ability to consistently come up with terrific designs. Design is the sole reason as to why Apple has been able to enjoy the price premiums over competitors...

What can we designers learn from the ipod?

Study the social, economic and technical factors that govern your target market and predict how they are going to change in the next two to three years. Find the gaps between the predicted factors and the current factors and fill those gaps. The best designs have always simply filled those gaps.

About a year and a half ago, Steve Ballmer enraged bloggers and Microsoft employees alike by being quoted as claiming that iPod owners were music theives.  It's ironic that at the same time, intelligent insightful Microsoft employees were looking at the iPod, enjoying it, and trying to understand that allure.  I'm sure most of them were trying to figure out just what they could do to help their company (and Steve Ballmer's) come out with better products that could compete with the iPod.

Without a doubt Microsoft management is missing a huge opportunity to harness the hearts, minds, and potential of their employees.  And, for the first time, the barrier between Microsoft employees and management is becoming transparent, even in print.   I'm sure that accounts for the recent brouhaha claiming that some Microsoft employees want Ballmer out.

But, one thing is for sure.  Ballmer is saying the wrong things these days.  Very wrong.
It would be better to keep quiet than start claiming that competitor's products are not allowed around the house "by edict".  This is one of the worst possible messages not only for the world, but for Microsoft's employees.

In fairness, not everybody agrees.  While it's true that using your own products is important, I'm not sure that denying use of competitor's products is quite the same.  It wouldn't be so bad if Ballmer had said "My kids have iPods along with several other music devices, I like to observe their choices."  Maybe he's ignoring his press briefings, who knows?

Microsoft used to impress me because they would embrace good technology no matter who developed it. I was impressed with MS engineers who would, almost without ego, reveal to me just how much they knew about Linux, Java, and other competing products.  I would always tell people how formidable Microsoft was because of their unrelenting pursuit to squash the competition and their unhesitating egoless assessments of competitors strengths and weaknesses.

Surely, things have changed.  At least at the top.